W 8S04/3100/G
No. 585
FOREIGN OFFICE. S.W.I,
14th June, 1939.
SECRET
Sir,
V||
As Your Excellency is aware. His Majesty's Government
have recently had under consideration the question of their
naval dispositions in the event of a war involving operations
not only in Europe hut also in the Far East*     The principles
upon which His Majesty's Government have for many years based
their naval strategy is that the safety of the United Kingdom
and the safety of Singapore are vital to the seoutity of the
Empire;   and it has therefore always been their firm intention*
in the event of hostilities or a threat of hostilities with
Japan, and irrespective of the situation in home waters, to
sent a fleet to Far Eastern waters sufficient for the pro-
tection of Singapore*     This policy was, however, determined
at a time when it could be reasonably hoped that Italy would
be neutral, and when it would therefore have been possible
to despatch an adequate fleet to the Far East without losing
the necessary margin of superiority in home waters*
2* It is now necessary for His Majesty's Government to
take into account the fact that, in any war between this
country and Germany, Italy would in all probability range
herself with Germany*     It is useless to disguise the fact that
the present and potential naval strength of this country is
not sufficient, and indeed is not designed, to engage three
naval Powers simultaneously;   and His Majesty's Government
have therefore been obliged to reconsider the naval dispositions
which/
His Excellency
The Right Honourable
Sir Ronald Lindsay, G.C.M.G., K.C.B., C.V.O.,
etc*     etc* etc*
Washington*
3
which they would make if they found themselves at war with
Germany and Italy and if Japan entered the war, or appeared
likely to do so, on the side of the Axis Powers.     The con-
clusion they have reached is that they would, in such cir-
cumstances, he obliged to maintain in home waters and in the
Mediterranean a sufficient force to give them a margin of
superiority over the joint fleets of Germany and Italy and
so enable them to give adequate protection to their allies
and support to the victims of any possible aggression. >a At
the same time the importance of protecting Singapore and the
Pacific Dominions is such that they cannot contemplate a
complete reversal of their earlier intention to despatch a
fleet to Far Eastern waters;   and they have accordingly
decided that, in the circumstances envisaged, they would still
endeavour to despatch such a fleet to the Far East, although
its size, and the moment at which it could be despatched, are
matters which would have to be decided in the light of the
general strategical situation at the time.
3.        In the circumstances described above, the attitude and
naval dispositions of the United States would obviously be of
cardinal importance.     Although this factor is at present too
uncertain to justify His Majesty's Government in basing their
own plans upon any estimate of it, and although they would not
feel entitled to ask the United States Government for information
as to their probable attitude in hypothetical circumstances,
they consider, nevertheless, that there would be some advantage
in informing the United States confidentially of the difficult
naval situation in which they would find themselves if faced
by a hostile combination consisting of Germany, Italy and Japan*
Such/
4
Such a communication might conceivably elicit a useful statement
of the intentions of the United States Government;   and it would,
moreover, he consistent with the frank exchanges of views which
have recently taken place on problems of common interest to the
WOo vernm ent 8 •
4* 1 accordingly request that, if you see no objection,
Your Excellency will make a formal communication to the United
States Government on the lines of the preceding paragraphs of
this despatch.     Its confidential character should, of course,
be emphasised, and I am prepared to leave it to your discretion
whether to make it verbally or in writing, and whether to
address it personally to the President or to the competent
authority at the State Department.
I am, with great truth and respect,
Sir,
Your Excellency's obedient Servant,
(For the Secretary of State)