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I
BRITISH EMBASS?,
WASHINGTON D.C.
No.1242 S.
November 9th 1939.
My Lord,
Since I had the honour of addressing to you
my despatch Wo. 1179 B of October 21st the extraordinary
session of Congress has passed the revised Neutrality
Aot and adjourned*   The net results of the vehement
discussion about the Act were two elear cut decisions
of the American people.   The first was that they wanted
the Allies to win and would help them by making available
to them   the resources of American industry of every kind,
on the "cash and carry" principle. The second was that
they were determined to keep out of the European war and
would approve no measures which seemed likely to entangle
them in it.   These decisions are likely to remain as the
fundamentals of American policy unless and until some
change in the international situation confronts the
United States with a threat to its own vital national
interests.    No other question was debated during the
six weeks1 session, nor have the leaders of both parties
apparently thought fit to remain in Washington as the
President invited them to do in order to be available
for consultation in any international emergency* They
can, of course, easily return here if a oriels occurs,
but it seems that they prefer for the present to get in
closer touch with feeling in their constituencies.
2. This is perhaps natural as the decision about
the present phase of the war is quite elear, and as
public opinion is turning away from war issues for the
moment, mainly ow$ng to the lull in active hostilities
The Right Honourable
in/
L:VALM:H3
The Viscount Halifax, K.G*,
etc. etc. etc.
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in Europe, and concentrating on party polit^M. The
The session which opens in January is the last before
the Presidential election anS the primaries for choosing
the candidates take place in midsummer. I understand
that the Republicans hold theirs first, wbieh nay be
an advantage for the Democrats.   By the time of the
Republican primary it will presumably be possible to
gauge how far Mr. Roosevelt is likely to be able to
dominate the Democratic Convention, but it Is quite
likely that he will not by then have provided the
answer to the riddle whether he will attempt to run for
a third term.   That will depend partly upon whether
the Democratic Convention can be relied upon to nominate
a candidate wfto will carry on, possibly in a moderated
form, the policies of the New Deal, and partly on how
the war develops in the next six months* There is no
use In speculating on the outcome to-day* The President
certainly has not yet made up his mind*
3. The Gallup polls, to which politicians pay
perhaps undue attention, show that Mr. Roosevelt's
popularity which had been steadily dwindling until
August has risen very greatly since war began* There
is relief that the quarrel with Wall Street has, at
least temporarily, been tenninated. There is the
effect of better business* There is also a good deal
of satisfaction at the calm way in which the President
has handled Congress during the neutrality debates;
he has been most scrupulous in not butting in, and
his utterances since war began have been far less
belligerent than before; it is, in fact, felt that
he has sensed tbo   strong feeling against involvoment
in war and has done everything possible to keep hia
country out of it.   Only people "in the know" profesa
alarm at hia real feelings and at the risk of hia
taking some precipitate act.   They point to the Panaisi
declaration and the dangers involved in the "chastity
belt" of patrol vessels*   They suspect a strong desire
for acts "short of war" which flight however land the
country where it has no desire to go*
4. Mr. Herbert Hoover, who has been very active
among his friends in Hew York, recently in an "off the
record" address warned his hearers, who were mostly
Wall Street men, that there were fifty-seven Senators
in Washington pledged to pass legislation which had
already been drafted whereby, if war wore to come, excess
war profit8 would be taxed op to 96 per cent, and tho
control of all important industries vested in the Federal
authorities.   This complete socialization would,
according to Mr. Hoover, really make the President a
dictator, and when peace returned there could be no
return to uncontrolled industry and very little tax
relief*   In fact the President would have become tho
prisoner of the Congress of Industrial Organizations1
loader Mr* John L. Lewis and of the small clique of
Corkrans and Cohens whose left wing tastes would have
had their chance in wartime to bring about a complete
revolution*   Therefore Mr. Hoover and hia frienda argue
that however much their sympathies may lie with the
Allies it would be ruin for the United States to get
into the war, and the last hope for democracy in the
world would perlah, if she did*
This/
This view has, I understand, gained a good many adherents
among the richer Republicans. It means that they will not
trust Mr. Roosevelt not to get the country into war* they
suspect his intention to do ab; they are convinced that
if he did so he would use the war crisis to inaugurate
another and more ruthless Hew Deal* Therefore above all
tilings they oast fight to prevent his re-election. They
would not mind if a "conservative0 type of democrat were
elected, even if it were a man as inadequately equipped
for that high office as I*. Garner.   They would, of course,
prefer their own man.     But here a difficulty arises in
their not being able to see a suitable candidate. The New
York business man would still prefer Mr. Dewey, but the
middle westerner would probably for that very reason
prefer anybody else:   Mr. Taft is not inspiring, but he
seems level-headed: Mr. Vandenberg is rather out of favour
because he has apparently backed an unpopular horse when
he voted against the removal of the embargo. Whoever is
chosen will, of course, like his Democratic opponent,
run on a cry that he intends to keep the country out of
war; if XT. Roosevelt is a candidate he will have the
advantage of being able to claim that he has done so. If
the unexpected occurs and a Republican is elected there
is no more guarantee that he will keep the country out
than there was after Mr. Woodrow Wilson's re-election on
that very cry in 1916.   In fact the rich manufacturers
and bankers who will contribute to the campaign chest
are among our best supporters, and if there was any risk
of Great Britain and France being defeated would be quite
likely to urge effective American interventionwhen once
they were sure that it would not be Mr .Roosevelt's war
with/
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with its hideous prospect of penal taxation.
5. The war has not at present presented to the
American public that clean out issue between black
and white that had been foreshadowed by the press pundits*
An ideological war of the "democracies" versus the
three fotalitarians"   was one thing* It implied that
the Soviet Union, so beloved by the left wing idealists
who haunt the universities and fill the columns of the
mere highbrow periodicals, would be on our side* How
that Russia has let them down they are inclined to vent
their spleen on us for having "forced" Russia by our
inept diplomacy into the arms of Hitler* These people
are, I think, suffering from a guilty conscience for
having abused us at the time of Munich, and then finding
that, when we have declared war against Hitler, it ia
the United States which is inclined, through terror of
involvement, to "Munich" the democracies* They attempt
to salve this conscience by accusing us of having
bungled the Russian negotiations, of being interested
only in preserving the existing social order in the
United Kingdom, and of being governed by a "Tory"
administration which does not represent the real opinion
of the country, Z do not think that these "intellectuals"
really carry much weight in the country, and certainly
not in Congress, but as their sympathies are in internal
politics very strongly pro-"Hew Deal", they could in
certain circumstances carry some weight with the
Administration*   Fortunately for us the President seems
just now to have temporarily lost interest in the coterie
of radicals grouped admiringly round Mr. Hopkins, Mr.
¦
Corkran and Mr. Cohen; he is more interested in talking
strategy/
20
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strategy with his military and naval atfriaers. If
can continue at least to give this impression for the
next few months it nay do mueh to prevent the party
split from re-opening, the foreign policy which 3ttr.
Roosevelt has advocated ana the embargo repeal whish
almost reunited his party in Congress have been goted
polities from the point of view of the 1940 Convention.
There is always the risk, however, that next session
with its promised debates on labour questions will reveal
what is certainly the fact that Mr* Roosevelt has not
really lost his sympathy with many of the eauses sponsored
by the Congress of Industrial Organizations. That
organisation is detested by southern democrats, who
are reactionary as regards coloured labour and dislike
the idea of Mr. Lewis butting in to their southern
preserves a.nd organising coloured labour? tjiey fear that
the next step would be his insisting on negroes exercising
the franchise, and then where would the old conservative
democratic politician be?
6. The present pictur'eTof a more or less united
Democratic Party faced by a Republican Party pretty deeply
divided over foreign policy is one that may easily be
altered by a false step by Mr. Roosevelt in either the
foreign or domestic field. He is said to Intend to
practice real neutrality for the present as prescribed for
him by Congress, but the old Adam in him may easily be
aroused by any outrageous acts on Germany's part.
Similarly in home polities he may be too mueh tempted to
make a bid for Congress of Industrial Organisations support
in the industrial states, and thereby reunite the solid
south/
south in opposition to him at the Bemoomtlo Convention,
and it must not be forgotten that such men aa Senator*
Tydings and George, when be attempted to purge laat year,
have never forgiven him, while Mr. Garner recently remarked
to a friend in the privacy of his home at Uvalde that he
would as soon receive a visit there from a rattlesnake as
from Mr* Roosevelt*
7* The elections that have just taken place are of
no real significance this year, being only for offices auch
as Mayor, but in one or two states under their own constitu-
tions there have been plebiscites on local matters* There
is some significance, as showing the desire of the country
for a middle course and a rest from experiments, in the
crushing defeat in California by a   two to one majority of
the "ham and eggs" plan, a proposal to give pensions of
$30 a week to unemployed over 50 years of age, and by
three to one of the Bigelow plan in Ohio for old age
pensions of $50 a month to persons over sixty*
8. I am sending copies of this despatch to the High
fi     K/t**0' GommissioDer for the United Kingdom in Canada^ The Prime
»       0 Minister of Australia, Canberra, and to the Department of
^/\>d^ Overseas Trade*
I have the honour to be,
with the highest respect,
My Lord,
Your Lordship's most obedient,
humble servant,
(SOD)