BRITISH XUBASSX,
WASHINGTON, D. C*
December 6th. 1939.
My Lard,
|f /j;\ Since I had the honour of addressing to you
' my despatch Mo* 1242 B of November 9th, there has been
no outstanding Incident or development In the Internal
political field*   American opinion on the war stands
exactly where it did*   An overwhelming majority want
the Allies to defeat Hitler:   an equally overwhelming
majority have made up their minds to keep America out
of the war*   This will not change until a situation
arises In which America's emotions or her vital
national interests become engaged*
8* The absence, until the Russian attack on
Finland, of any striking events on the European
front left almost a clear field in the newspaper to the
reporter of internal incidents, and to preliminary
manoeuvres and conjectures regarding next year's
Presidential eledtion and the coming session of
Congress*   The indications are that the President's
popularity is on the increase, and that a considerable
section of the public, largely because of the absence
of any other outstanding personality, is gradually
becojsJLng reconciled to the idea of a third term* But
other Democrat ic candidates are beginning to come into
. ' y -J
the rield*   The supporters of Vice President Garner
have announced definitely that their leader will be a
candidates   Mr* McNutt is still, perhaps, the most
advocated/
The Right Honourable
The Viscount Halifax, K. Q», L:FKO:CL
etc*,        etc *, etc*
advocated alternative. But If the President does not
ran himself there are indications that his own choice
would be Mr* Hull, a choice which would probably be
acceptable to the more conservative elements In the
Democratic party*   It Is unlikely that the President
will make up his mind about standing until the date of
the Conventions* which may be postponed later, than
usual this year and that his final decision will depend
In the main on the international situation*   On the
Republican side Mr* Dewey of New York has now definitely
announced himself as a candidate, whilst Senators
Vandenberg, Bridges and Taft are working quietly to
secure their own nomination*
5* In my above mentioned despatch I referred to
the unstable foundation of the present more or less
united front of the Democratic party*   To date the
leaders appear to. have succeeded In maintaining the
truce between the two wings of the party, and the
indications are that they will endeavour to preserve
It In the coming session of Congress*   To do this the
President will need to tread softly with Respect to
such domestic issues as the Labour Relations Act and
the spend-lend policy, for if he were to face the
coming session with an outright defence of .She Hew Deal
position on domestic natters or stake again demands la
the rather peremptory manner he has adopted in the
past, attacking the conservative elements in his party*
he would almost certainly split the party once again*
There/
There la some reason to believe that am the Republican
aide the leaders will tend to limit their attack on
the Ren Deal policy to what they ragard as
and will wait ontll the 1940 Presidential campaign to
put forward a substitute programme *   Probably °™ of
their Immediate efforts will be to prevent the renewal
of the law undar which reciprocal trade treaties have
been negotiated with a number of foreign countries,
which expiree next year,, and which offend their
protectionist traditions*   The Administration's spokesmen
are busily engaged In explaining on every possible
*
occasion the benefits of the law In an endeavour to rally
the support which will be necessary If it is to be
renewed next session*
4*       •     Meanwhile death has again given the President
the opportunity denied him in 1987 by Congress of changing
the membership of the Supreme Court*   In the third week
j
of November Justice Butler, a Roman Catholic conservative
lawyer from Minnesota, passed away*   The most generally
anticipated successor is Mr* Prank Murphy, the Roman
Catholic Attorney General frost Michigan, but it is said
that Mr* Murphy himself is not anxious to take the post*.
Should he accept it Mr* Robert Jackson, the energetic
Mew Deal SolIc 1 tor-General, might be appointed to fill
his place, though there are other candidates inthla field*
bm In paragraph 7 of my above mentioned despatch
I referred briefly to the local elections which took
place at the beginning of November*   The most striking
features were firstly the almost complete sweep in the
J
City of New York Itself by the Democratic Tammany
organisation, and secondly the extent to which the
Republicans/
Republicans NUlmd control la the public offices in
FeiiasylTOhiaH   An interesting feature of the elections
In this State was the apparent shift of the Philadelphia
negro vote back to the Republican party which it had
deserted on the vise of the New Deal*   Prom the Republican
standpoint, this la an encouraging development, for a
general awing of the negro voters to their former
Republican allegiance would have an important Influence
on the 1940 Bmaidential campaign*     In Hew Jersey too
the results of the elections were to entrench more
strongly the Republicans in office* ^glj
6* At the end of lant month an agreement between
the Chrysler Motor Corporation and the United Automobile
Workers brought to an end a labour dispute which had
resulted in approximately 145,000 automobile workers
being idle since the beginning of October, and caused
an accumulation of ordere amounting to something like
125,000 motor care or trucks•
I have the honour to be,
With the highest respect*
My Lord,
Xour Lordship's most obedient*
humble servant,
(SOD) LOTHIAK