I gave Mr.Welles today a
copy of the aide-memoire giving the
estimate from London of probabilities
of German action in Spain.
I have not got a copy of the
telegram.
18th December,1941
i
7
articuQ©/
Tho following la a paraphrase of a telegran
referring to tho t«losrm tho substance of which was
contained In tho secret and personal letter from
Ix>rd ?Inlifax to Itr, vrelloe of 11th Pocombert-
Iteports about the wooting between t'archal
Potain and Serine ere a till Inconclusive.   For ocaae
raontl\3 past there has boen considerable pressure on
Vichy to allow UN Geraana tho uao of basoa In Korth
Africa.   It la poaalblo that the nattor was carried a
ata^e further at tho recent neettng.   It is c;aite
poaalblo that tho I'arahal :uia agreed to glvo the G«naiia
/greater tranait facllltlea in ITorth Africa and even
to surrender baaoo but there is as vet no definite
evidence f iat t'10 latter la bolnc- done.
do not
Hla Uajoaty'a Oovornnont/consider tljat t*ie
Garr.ana havo at present In Worth '\frioa, or oa:i have
within the next two or throe nontha, sufficient forcoa
for full-acale operationa in t)*at aroa. Devolop^enta
in Mbyc nay, however, ?iavo thrown out tlw tl e-table
of tho MNM and nay oonpel then to take eono action
In tho near future with such anall forces aa are avail-
able to then.   Tho Oemans r.ay quite possibly find It
essential to neutralise Halta as a firat stop before
going Into Horth Africa.   There la also the possibility
of acne sort of surprise attack on Gibraltar by air and
with 3ubr.iarinos, possibly with Spanish connivance.
Hprtl liavo boon received that the Oomana
Ptcontly demanded facllltlea for t;» tranait of troops
through Spain and that tho Spanish Oenorala told franco
that these dezionda nuat be refused*   There is however no
furt'.ior evidence to confirm those reports and :ils
Majesty's Government littvj no Information about the
HE3:KG
^ attitude/
- 2 -
attitude of the Spanish Government In face of auoh
denanda*
Ilia r.ajeaty'e Govomnont consider It unlikely
that substantial Oeraan forces could be In Korth
Africa for son© two raonthe but It Is possible that
thoro will be infiltration of '"ernan troopa, par-
ticularly to any baaos handed over by Petaln and
ti»r©       bo a otoady rolnforeenent of t>*e Ooman
air fox'oee in tlx© reditorran?»an#
December 18th 1941.
/